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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd