A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
