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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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